Final Model

In finally coming to terms with my project; here's the plan.

Although I still am waiting for data (which probably won't come), I have completed my model and paper assuming that what I predict will be true. This means I assumed that distance to tree plantings has a large influence on oyster bed populations. At this point, I feel pretty good about my paper. It's written in its entirety, and just needs some final tweaking before I call it quits. About ten pages long, it goes in depth with background on the Chesapeake Bay, specifics with Dinamica, and avenues of future research on this subject.

The bad thing is I'm not sure if I follow all of the guidelines. The sections outlined by Prof G on her Storify site don't completely match up with what I wrote. I read the guidelines originally, thought for a long time about what I wanted to write, then came back and wrote each of the sections. I sometimes find that thinking about something without looking at it or pushing it is often when I find my best ideas. That way, all I have left to do is just finding the time to sit down and physically write out my ideas coherently. Anyway, looking back at what should be in each section and rereading what I wrote; the two things don't exactly match up. Thus, that will be this evenings activity: reorganizing and rewriting parts of my paper, essentially editing. With that said, I do feel as though the assignment is somewhat loose, and that I satisfy all of the requirements. Hopefully all of this effort is worth it!

That final model

My final project took a 180 degree turn. I have completely changed topics: from jellyfish population movements and climate change to analyzing the effects of riparian tree plantings on oyster bed populations within the Chesapeake Bay.

I could find little to no free data on jellyfish populations which was the deciding factor. Now I'm hopefully working with data from the Maryland iMap website. I say hopefully because the data isn't for certain yet. While I can easily view the data and maps in ArcCatalog; I can't get the files converted over into ArcMap or a shapefile to be used in Dinamica EGO. I sent an email to the head lady in charge, Erin Silva, who has all of the datasets. Unfortunately, she's out of the office until Monday, April 29th, so I won't hear back from her until then. Assuming she gives me the data without any problems, I will be processing the data in my model on Monday or Tuesday.

In the meantime, I will formulate my model in Dinamica and write the backbone of my final paper. That way, the last thing I will have to do with the data is just input the maps in the model and run the model. I should be able to take snap shots and include these in my paper and will type in specifics to the results/discussion/conclusion sections. I'm hoping that this leads to a full, final project.

Fingers crossed that it all works out!

Not a jelly

Jellyfish seem like pretty simple creatures, and they are, relatively. In my zoology class in high school, I remember learning about them not long after sea sponges, which are the most basic organisms. Specifically, I wanted to focus this post on the Portuguese Man-of-war. I thought that it was a jellyfish, but brief research shows that it isn't actually a jellyfish, it's a siphonophore, which means that it's a colonial organism - it's composed of individuals called zooids. The zooids are highly specialized, and dependent on each other.

The name, man-of-war, comes from the fact that the creature floats on the surface of the ocean because a large portion of it is filled with air, so it looks like a ship. It has no means of propulsion, so it's moved by tides and winds and just floats along the surface. The man of war can deflate its pneumatophore in order to briefly submerge underwater if need be. The long stinging tentacles are darkly colored blue and purple and are used to sting and kill small fish and shrimp. Detached tentacles and dead specimens washed up on beaches can sting just as painfully as the live organisms and can remain potent for hours or days after separation from the other parts. The stings are painful and very unpleasant; I have firsthand experience.

This is interesting; the blanket octopus carries around broken man of war tentacles for defense and offense. That would be a cool avenue of research. I wondered what ate the man of war, and apparently it's a regular part of the loggerhead turtle diet. There's a sea slug and a snail that both also consume the Portuguese man of war.

All of this information was courtesy of Wikipedia: Portuegese Man of War.

Uranium mining or invasives?

For another one of my classes, Ecological Risk Assessment, I had to read a 40 page scientific paper on an ecological risk assessment looking to quantify the risks posed to a watershed in the Northern section of Australia. There were two different types of risk, the ones posed by mining just upriver of the site, and the ones posed by the landscape. The mining operation was an example of point source pollution, whereas the diffuse landscape effects were an example of non point source contamination.

The risk due to mining was quantified by looking at the Uranium, Manganese, and two other chemicals frequently found dispersing from mines that greatly affect the environment and water quality. The overall risk from this chemical contamination was summed up and compared to the risk from the landscape.

The landscape was composed of the damage from feral pigs, fire, invasive species, and the effect of water rising due to climate change. Invasive species, specifically para grass, was shown to pose the greatest risk to the watershed as a whole, followed by fire and feral pigs. The water rising due to climate change did not seem to be a particularly effective aspect to measure and predict for a few reasons: climate change modelling is not overly accurate looking 100 years into the future, and in this situation, the rest of the landscape was assumed to stay the same, with only the water quantity and salinity increasing over time. These reasons were explained in the paper.

In brief, the conclusions of the study were that the diffuse landscape level damage posed a greater risk to the watershed than uranium mining did. Wait... really? Yes, according to this ERA paper. The paper aroused many unanswered questions about the mine. Was it privately owned or government owned? When does management change hands and how will that change the effects of the mining operation? When will the mine close? Why were only those four chemicals analyzed, yet the larger landscape effects of the land and the longer term effects of the mine were not included?

My discussion section picked apart the article chosen by the professor, to some extent with his blessing. Not surprisingly, I turned out to be one of the few (if not the only one) who read the entirety of the 40 pages.  I contributed a decent amount to the discussion, and as a follow up of sorts decided to make my blog post about the paper. A couple hours or so of my time were devoted to reading and thinking about this paper, so I figured I might as well continue down that road and make this about it too.

I am not sure if this link to the paper will work or not, but here it is: Bayliss et al 2012

Class Stress

Class registration for Fall 2013 opens next week. I'm looking forward to my first 12 credit semester at UVM. I'm taking two freshman level classes and two graduate level classes. My course list currently seems to be: Food and World Population (CDAE 002), Biological Invasions (PBIO 295), Intro to Jazz History (MU 005), and Wildlife Behavior (WFB 275). Each class satisfies a requirement for me - the first class satisfies a CALS Core requirement, the second one fits for my plant biology minor, the third class works for a D1, and the last fulfills the last credits for my concentration. All of my classes will be done before noon, with one class on Fridays. This would leave a large amount of time for an internship, a job, or both. Hopefully whatever I end up doing or working on this summer will continue into the fall semester and provide a paid job post graduation. I'm meeting with my adviser on Friday to discuss my courses, and make sure that I'm set to graduate. I need to send an email to the professor of my Biological Invasions to get permissions to take the class. I'm pretty excited about my schedule; all of my classes seem interesting and I'm looking forward to living downtown next year with my friends.

Facebook

I was just scrolling through my newsfeed on Facebook, before starting on this blog post. I just had a realization; that Facebook is similar to the pieces, processes and patterns in ecosystems and the environment. Individual people or pages for organizations and such are the pieces. The processes are methods with which we can interact with each other - a poke, wall post, private message, or group message - and the patterns are the continuous ways in which we interact with the same people. For example, if there's one friend that you always post comments on their wall versus someone else where you share memes in private messages.

In addition to that rather basic connection between the two systems, I was considering how interesting it is when you look at someone you're friends with or accept the friend request of someone, and then examine the mutual friends you two have. It's crazy when you find someone who knows the same people as you do, but you didn't know that they knew each other. It gets weird when it's a mixed bag of people that you both know because then you get to wondering how the other people met, how they know each other and how well, etc. Maybe this makes me sound a little bit creepy, but I think it's a natural reaction to have; I'm just curious. I like understanding how and why things work or go together, and that's especially true with people.

All of these ideas can be linked back to ecology though. I think we don't fully understand the processes or pieces or even have note of the species in an ecosystem. They have so many interactions that we probably have no idea about at all, which complicates restoration, or even basic understanding of our role and effect on the environment. So crazy, but still so true.

Jellyfish or syrup?

The two project ideas that I threw out when we discussed possibilities in class were jellyfish and maple tree movement.

Both of these ideas are only in the formulation phase; I haven't solidified anything. For jellyfish, I would need data on current jellyfish locations and the habitats that jellyfish would need - perhaps certain water depths, presence of jellyfish prey, and water temperature. These limits would be set on the initial map, which hopefully would be a time step map from like 1980 to 2000, which could then be used to progress jellyfish progress into the future according to climate change. I predict that climate change will have a large impact on aquatic organisms in general, as temperature of water is a determining factor for survival. In terms of jellyfish, I think the temperature of the water will decide how far and to what extent they spread. Jellyfish succeed in warmer temperatures, and invasive and nuisance species like the Portuguese Man of War (shown below) will extend their range to waters further north.

Picture source: http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/portuguese%20man%20of%20war

The second idea was to examine the movement of maple tree species further north, again an effect of climate change. In order to produce maple syrup, maple trees need freezing nights and warm days in order for the sap to flow and be collected. The problem with this idea is that Vermont is seeing fewer of these days compared to the past; the land and climate further north will be more suitable for harvest and production of maple syrup. Thus, I was curious to explore the economic effects of this shift in maple syrup production as climate change occurs. 

Snow and Sun

For blogs this week, the topic is looking at spring break through an ecology lens.

With that in mind, I first thought about the weather while I was home, and the climate of the mid-Atlantic region. I call Maryland my home, as I've lived there all my life, and right now it's going through that awkward in between phase of winter and spring. Although there are four seasons in Maryland, there really isn't much of a winter; if we get snow it's usually temporary and the forecast consistently predicts more than we get. In fact, I've even had school closed because snow was forecast, but never actually came.

I bring up the snow because it snowed while I was home, on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning so that there was about a 1/4 inch by 8 AM or so, not even enough to cover the grass. People in DC called it the Snowquester after the recent economic developments from the White House. It's crazy to think that there was snow Wednesday, yet this weekend yielded sunny skies and 60 degree weather. All within the span of a week. But that's part of the beauty of Maryland really; you just have to take it day by day.

What was most interesting about this situation, is that the birds and critters seemed slightly confused by the warmth and sunshine - thinking it was spring. On Saturday and Sunday morning, birds were chirping happily in the morning and throughout the day, despite the fact that colder weather will probably come again shortly. Some of the tulips in my front yard had already sprouted and started to grow, but cold weather will stop them in their tracks. Crocus, typically a small purple or white flower, is one of the first flowers out in very early spring, verging on the end of winter (pictured below). Small patches of the small flowers could be found here and there throughout the neighborhood, but this is a flower that can withstand threatening colder temperatures.

The temperature and climate are one way in which ecology was witnessed over spring break.

Crocus, image source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crocus_group.jpg

Crunch Time

In light of our upcoming exam, the blog post this week will feature 3 short answer exam questions and answers.

1. Why is studying ecosystems ecology important?

Studying ecosystems ecology allows us to better understand the world around us, adapt to changes and anticipate adversity. In understanding the pieces, patterns and processes in ecosystems, we can become better stewards by figuring out our role in the environment.

2. What are the benefits and drawbacks of modeling?

Although modeling allows us to look at different possibilities for the future and determine which scenarios are most likely, there are a lot of variables that aren't accounted for and can't be foreseen no matter how many trials are run. Modeling past events as a predictor of the future works most of, but not all of the time. On the other hand, modeling helps us to consider and list the important facets of an issue that we might not otherwise factor in.

3. Why is decomposition critical to continuation of an ecosystem?

Decomposition allows for nutrient cycling to occur; so nutrients can continuously be broken down and taken back up again by plants and animals in the area. Nutrients facilitate energy production, and without energy an ecosystem doesn't exist.

US Global Change Research Program

A little bit more focused in terms of subject is this weeks subject of some sort of climate change report. I chose to look at the report from the United States Global Change Research Program.

Before even starting to look at the report, I checked out the authors and who wrote the report. Turns out that they have a pretty wide variety of people (mostly scientists) who are all advising the report itself. Some are professors, some are professionals, but all of them seem to be experts. I'm always skeptical of sources for information, especially something as important and controversial as climate change. Although skeptical, the authors of this report appear to have a decent record in terms of experience. This information is found here: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/first-national-assessment/national-assessment-synthesis-team

Moving onto the 163 page summary report, there is a lot of useful information to be gleaned from every page. The temperature will be increasing 5-9 degrees or more in the next 100 years. Climate patterns in terms of temperature, precipitation, and storms will all be affected. The food supply will not be secure. There's a lot of scary information found in this report.

The most important part of which I think is the fact that the real, or actual results can not be 100% predicted. That's the scary part, that we can't fully anticipate what's going to happen in the future to the entire planet. Everything will be different; organisms, the atmosphere, populations.

Here's a link to the report:
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/nca/nca-2000-report-overview.pdf

Technology

Remote sensing and GIS have only recently been incorporated into solving environmental problems. Although they have both revolutionized the field, such technology can frequently be difficult to use. I wonder if the technology causes people to shy away from certain classes or careers. I used ArcGIS and all of its software package last year when I took Intro to GIS. Over time, the software becomes easier to understand, although it takes a lot of initial effort because it's not very user friendly. The software isn't GUI, unfortunately. My project at the end of the semester was very basic, not because I didn't have any ideas, but mostly because there was a limited amount of data available for free. It was also difficult to figure out exactly how to process the map layers to get the information that I wanted, even with experience at the end of the semester. It was very frustrating.

Moving forward, I also think that Dinamica can be frustrating and difficult to use; but much less so than ArcGIS. So far the lessons have been fairly easy, and the software is pretty easy to use. There have been some problems in the directions from the guidebook because it's outdated, but the goal at the end of the day is usually accomplished. Through the trials and tribulations, technology can be useful.

Soil Resources

This week's sweet subject: soils!

Last year I took Joseph Gorres class on soils, which was awesome to say the least. Lab was entertaining, as we learned how to quantify soil via organic matter, organisms, and hydrologic qualities, among other things. However, one of the most interesting resources that I used in and after that class was the Web Soil Survey.

I think it was mentioned in class yesterday, but it's a useful, informative website. Essentially, you can search any place within the United States and find out the soil qualities of that region. It has the flaw of not every place has been surveyed and is represented on the map, but it's a slow and steady process to study all of the soils. It's pretty simple and relatively user friendly though, which is very convenient. You just type in an address, whether it's by state and county, specific address, or latitude and longitude. From there, the display changes to show the specific region, and soil properties including uses, texture, mineral and nutrient content, water content, and many many other details. In short, it's a pretty helpful tool in quantifying soil, at least within the United States.

http://websoilsurvey.nrcs.usda.gov/app/

 

 

The Great Gulf

Blog posting round 2! Here goes nothing!

So this week’s topic is supposed to be discussing the link between location and climate. In other words, explaining why the climate in a particular place is the way it is. I thought I would look into England, which is affected by the Gulf Stream. This is the swath of warm air that cradles England and makes the water and weather much warmer than it would be naturally for that longitude. My parents used to live in England, and I can attest to how relatively mild the winters were; they were very similar to the winter I experienced growing up in Maryland, which is several hundred miles south of England. The other strange part of visiting my parents abroad was that in the summer and winter the number of hours that the sun was visible was very great and very few, respectively. In the winter, the sun would only be out for about four hours or so, and the world before and after would be plunged into darkness. Inversely, the summer produced long days with only about four hours without sunlight; and the shades had to be pulled tight in order to produce enough darkness to sleep. There wasn’t really an accurate way to look at the sun outside and determine what time it was.

Pushing this idea that warm air circulates over the United Kingdom; there is also a large amount of precipitation because the warm air comes from over the Atlantic Ocean, bringing moisture and heat with it. As the air cools over the land, water is lost from the air, landing all over Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England. Although cooling, the air is not cold enough in the winter to consistently produce lots of snow during the winter in England, which is surprising considering that England and the northern United States and Canada are on the same latitude. However, they have very different climates.

 An image of the Gulf Stream and temperatures of the surface.

First Post

The simple question posed at the end of class the other day was: why am I in this class?

In short, it's an obvious answer; it's a class that fits into the requirements for the concentration within my major. Through the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at University of Vermont, I'm working towards a Bachelor of Science in Environmental Science with a concentration in Conservation Biology and Biodiversity.

With all that jargon out of the way, the long answer is that I thought the class would be interesting. I thought it would further explain how to understand and realize the different parts within the whole of an ecosystem. In all honesty, I could have taken any number of classes to just fulfill the requirement, I picked this class because I think studying a problem on the ecosystem level is the most effective way to figuring out the world around us. Understanding how the pieces, or in this case species, within a puzzle interlock is the key to problem solving. That being said, I hope this class helps me to do that.